Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
